COMMENT BY GERARD HENDERSON FOR THE WEEKEND AUSTRALIAN, SATURDAY 29 NOVEMBER 2025

The most disturbing political photos of the year so far took place in Alaska on Friday, August 15 (local time). There was United States President Donald J. Trump standing and clapping for Russian Vladimir Putin as he walked up the red carpet to meet his host on US soil.

Thereafter the two leaders got into Trump’s presidential limousine and headed off for a private meeting. It was Putin’s re-entry into Western society – and it was entirely unwarranted.

As previously pointed out in this column, I do not suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome and well understand why he has substantial support in the US. Particularly among those who live outside the wealthy coastal cities. Trump has a certain appeal to those who feel that they are looked down upon by wealthy, fashionable left-wing elites – and they are. The US president himself is a wealthy educated man but he does not present as an elitist to everyday Americans.

Most political leaders in Western democracies have substantial egos. After all, few individuals have the confidence to present as someone who should be supported in a popular ballot. But Trump is among the vainest of the vain.

This would not matter all that much. Except for the fact that Trump seems obsessed with winning the Nobel Peace Prize. It’s not at all clear why. After all, it’s just another gong, albeit a high profile one.

It would seem that Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize obsession could endanger the security of the free world. The survival of the democratic state of Israel within secure borders is important to the security of western democracies. And so is the survival of Ukraine in at least some form of its previous self before Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and its current attack.

Trump has an unhealthy attraction to foreign dictators. Possibly because he believes he can prevail over them after the diplomatic equivalent of an ultimate fighting championship. But it’s not the same. Trump is a democratically elected president – his second (and final) term will end towards the end of January 2029. Putin who was elected president in theory is, in fact, a dictator. There is no end-by date in Putin’s case.

Trump is hoping to end a war and Putin is in no hurry to win a war. After all, Putin has time on his side and no political rivals to worry about, it would seem. It is not clear to what extent Trump understands Europe – western and eastern. Certainly he has been correct in insisting that the nations of Western Europe should do more to ensure their own security – and he has had some success in this area. Moreover, unlike some predictions made during Trump’s first term, the US remains in NATO under the Trump administration.

However, Trump appears to know little about what was Imperial Russia under the Czars, which became the Soviet Union under the Bolshevik dictatorship of Vladimir Lenin and Josef Stalin and contemporary Russia under Putin. Putin has an aim to restore Russia along the lines of what it was during the time of Peter the Great. Including absorbing Ukraine into Russia along the lines that existed when the Soviet Union quashed the independent state of Ukraine which came into existence towards the end of the First World War.

Ukraine was re-formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukrainians today well remember the Holodomor of 1932-33. This was effectively a forced famine imposed on Ukraine by Stalin which led to the deaths of between three and five million.

It’s understandable why contemporary Ukrainians – under the leadership of Volodymyr Zelensky – want to maintain their state. But this is also of interest to the West. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine there will likely be other targets. Notably the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) which were incorporated into the Soviet Union under the Nazi-Soviet Pact in August 1939.

The West (including Australia) has reason to feel grateful for Ukraine. When Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in 2022 intent on conquering Kyiv, few would have expected that the nation would survive. But it did – or, rather, it has so far. And, in the process, inflicting significant defeats on Russian forces.

Russia has over three times the population of Ukraine and the latter cannot survive in its current state forever. Clearly some kind of ceasefire, perhaps treaty, is called for. In the process it is important that the Trump administration does not make unnecessary concessions and continues to put pressure on Putin. The same can be said for the European Union nations.

But there are immediate problems. The proposed 28-point peace plan is unduly harsh on Ukraine. It’s a bit like asking Putin what he wants at the present time – and then giving it to him. Of special concern is Putin’s demand that Ukraine should be denied military weapons along with any prospect whatsoever of joining NATO. This requirement, if implemented, would leave Ukraine severely ill-equipped to resist further Russian aggression.

If Trump fails to understand Putin, the former KGB operative in the Soviet Union, his hand-picked negotiator Steve Witkoff is significantly worse. The White House has not denied that Witkoff briefed Putin about how to handle Trump in order to get the best outcome for Russia in negotiations over Ukraine.

In fact, Trump has said that this phone conversation is the way business negotiations take place. Well, perhaps on New York building sites four decades ago. But sucking up to a dictator who murders his political enemies and invades neighbouring nations is not the way to negotiate the fate of a country whose continued existence is important to the free world.

It would make sense for Witkoff to be sent on, in business terminology, gardening leave. The best equipped American to handle Putin would be Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

We would probably not be facing this situation now if President Bill Clinton had not convinced Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994 – an eventuality he now regrets. As to Australia, the message now – as ever – is that the nations that invest in their own security are most likely to achieve security.

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Gerard Henderson is Executive Director of The Sydney Institute.

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