A Changing Australian Religious Landscape

Dr Ruth Powell has been a researcher and writer with the National Church Life Survey Research since 1991, completing her PhD on age differences among church attenders. Prior to becoming Director in July 2007, she has also held a communications role, including media liaison, speaking, newsletter production and website design for the NCLS. At an evening seminar at the Sydney Institute on Monday 7 August, Ruth Powell joined the Pew Research Center’s Conrad Hackett to discuss the topic “World religions – Who’s Up, Who’s Down”.

A CHANGING AUSTRALIAN RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE

RUTH POWELL

This paper focuses on shifts in the Australian religious landscape. I  bring  an  empirical overview that  draws  primarily  on  three  sources: the  national Census, our own surveys of the Australian population  and  the  National  Church  Life  Surveys – the  largest longitudinal  study  of  local  church  life  in the  world with  a  quarter of  a  million  participants from   3000  local  churches.

In particular, I will highlight three factors: secularisation, cultural or ethnic diversity and generational change.

Australians are moderately religious

How religious are Australians? I want to begin by acknowledging the deep spirituality of our First Peoples developed over tens of thousands of years.

At this time in our history, based on a range of measures, I would describe Australians as moderately religious. From the 2016 National Census, we learn that six in ten Australians have a religious affiliation.

A  sample  survey  of  Australians  in  late  2016  found that  nearly six in 10 believe in God, a spirit or life force. The decline in this, and other religious beliefs   over  time,  is  evidence for  the secularisation thesis – which, in  its  simplest form, is  that  there  is  a negative relationship  between  modernisation  and religion.

Yet, religious practices and experiences are persistent.

• Three in ten Australians pray or meditate at least once per week.

  Three in ten Australians pray or meditate at least once per week.

• More than a quarter (28%) have had a mystical or supernatural experience.

  More than a quarter (28%) have had a mystical or supernatural experience.

• 18% attend religious services at least monthly.

Australian religious identity is changing in line with other Western nations

Let me address some changes in the religious landscape. One feature is the change in religious identity, affiliation, or belonging. “Who is my tribe?”

The national census question “what is your religion?” gives us insight into the way Australians construct their religious identity.

Figure 1 tracks religious identity across more than 100 years using Census data. Christian affiliation remains the largest group overall at 52 per cent.

One  trend  in  recent  decades  is  increasing  religious diversity, which  is  tied  to cultural  diversity. The rise in “other religions” – now  8 per cent – partly reflects higher immigration from South East Asia. 

A second trend is the increase in “no religion” (30%), particularly among young adults. While there is evidence to suggest that the proportion of “religious nones” will decline in the context of the future global population, within the Australian context, we expect this group to continue to increase in size – driven by generational change.

The church landscape has changed significantly  in  recent  decades

I turn to our research within Christian churches where  there  has  been  substantial change in recent decades. The story most often told is one of a decline  in  church attendance. The  evidence offers some  counterpoints  to  this  narrative.  For   example, local churches remain as a presence across the nation with 12,400 locations. As a comparison, there  are  around   6,500   service stations.

Further, the decline in attendance has slowed. Monthly self-reported attendance at religious services   declined  by  22 per cent  between 1950  and  1990, compared to a 5 per cent decline between 1990 and 2016.

Weekly attendance (or head counts) as church worship services has declined as proportion of the population to 7 per cent in 2011. However, there has been little change over 20 years in the actual number of people who attend. Around 1.6 million Australians attend church in an average week in 2011 compared to 1.7 million in 1991.

Within  Christian  churches, there  have  also  been significant changes in a short period. For example, the  top  five  denominations  by  size have changed order. Australian  Christian Churches, the largest Pentecostal denomination (previously called Assemblies of God) have  jumped  from  5th  position in 1991 to joint  second  in  2011. The Catholic Church remains the largest denomination in terms of weekly attendance.

It may also surprise some that weekly attendance in Protestant churches has been largely stable over 20 years. Rapid growth in Pentecostal movements has offset declines in mainstream Protestant churches.

Demographic factors will continue to influence Christian church attendance profile

Looking forward, I want to highlight two demographic factors that will continue to shape Christian  churches  and  wider  religiosity  in  Australia. The first is cultural diversity; the other is generational  change.

Australia is one of the most multicultural nations in the world with a third of the population born overseas in 2016. Depending on the character of future migration flows, religious diversity in Australia will probably continue to increase.

Within   churches,   the  proportion  born  overseas  is even  higher  and  has  risen dramatically  (36% in 2016  vs  28%  in  2006),  particularly  from non- English-speaking backgrounds (27% in 2016).

Churches   already  experience  a  degree  of  disruption and  innovation  as  individuals and  new  communities of different  backgrounds  bring  new  life  and  energy. I suspect  we  may  have the  highest  percentage  of multicultural congregations in the world. The intercultural communication skills being learnt within these faith communities is a potential resource  for  wider Australia.

The  other  demographic  factor  I  wish  to  highlight  is age  –  o r generational  change. Australia  is  like  other  Western nations,  where  each  cohort  is  a  little  less religious than the cohort before. If you want to predict which adults  will  be  religious, look  to  their childhood household and family influences. Mums, followed  by  dads,   are  the  most important people to transmit faith across generations.

Although decline in attendance has slowed in recent decades, I foresee another wave of decline, particularly in mainstream denominations, due to their ageing profiles. High mortality and low birth rates is likely to hit the mainstream hard, even if younger Pentecostal movements continue to grow. 

The role of religion and of Christian churches is contested

Finally, the role of religion, and of Christian churches, is being contested in Australian society.

When asked in 2016 if religion was “good for society” around four in 10 Australians (39%) agreed and  two  in 10  (21%)  disagreed. The  remaining  four in 10 were neutral or unsure. It is incorrect and unhelpful  to  frame  the  views  of  Australians  as  two opposed camps. The size of the middle group is substantial  and  their  views are  key  to  the  future.

What is the role of churches? Australians are most likely to say that the roles churches should fulfil  are to

• Conduct weddings, funerals, baptisms etc (60%)
• Support the poor (60%)
• Encourage good morals (59%)

While the question is not directly comparable, when church attenders were asked about how they understood the mission (or purpose) of the church, the highest responses were:

• Being a witness to Jesus Christ through my actions (48%)
• Proclaiming the Word of God (42%)

So, what of the future?

As we share similar world views  and  values  with  other  western  nations, Australia seems likely to follow the same trends with  regard  to  religion.

One point of potential differentiation is our multicultural character, which feeds religious diversity. As a historically tolerant & largely successful multicultural nation, could Australia offer leadership in models of effective cross-cultural life?

The  future  will  also be  determined  by  the  power  of generational  transmission. What will  households and  families  pass  on  with  regard  to  religion and spirituality?

Perhaps I can give the last word to the quarter of a million church attenders who completed the 2016 NCLS.  Eight in 10 say they would personally support new approaches in the ministry and mission of their local church. An attitude of openness to innovation is on the rise.