Australian Federal Politics on the Eve of The Wentworth By-Election

In August 2018, the Westminster system of government took its toll, yet again, of an Australian prime minister. And, after three weeks of parliamentary power play, former PM Malcolm Turnbull resigned his seat of Wentworth bringing on a much-contested by-election. Amid accusations of a “women problem”, the pre-selection for the Liberal candidate in Wentworth instead produced Dave Sharma – a male contestant living far from the Wentworth electorate. The new PM, Scott Morrison, faced a formidable task with Labor continuing to register higher in voter preference after 40 consecutive Newspolls. To discuss all this and more, Sharri Markson, National political editor at The Daily Telegraph and Aaron Patrick, Senior writer at The Australian Financial Review, two of Australia’s most experienced journalists, addressed on Monday 17 September 2018.

AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLITICS ON THE EVE OF THE WENTWORTH BY-ELECTION

SHARRI MARKSON

Eight months out from polling day, the federal government is in a position it never imagined it would be in. It’s massively behind in the polls, it has a difficult by-election in what’s meant to be a blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Wentworth and three MPs, Julia Banks, Craig Laundy and Ann Sudmalis in the most marginal seats have said they’re not recontesting – despite asking to be preselected just a short while ago. And hence, they’re not fundraising either.

In short, it’s disastrous.

To make matters worse, if a federal election were to be called today – the Liberals would not have enough money to fight it. I’m told the federal government would be lucky to have access to around $2.5 million at the moment. And, this time around, there’s no Malcolm Turnbull to pull out a lazy $1.75 million when money runs out in the final week of the campaign.

It would seem the transactional cost of overthrowing a prime minister in Malcolm Turnbull potentially outweighs any benefits the Liberal Party may be getting from a new leader who has sharp political instincts and is in touch with mainstream Australian voters. The transactional costs extend from Turnbull’s destructive attempts to refer Dutton to the High Court and deprive Morrison of his one-seat majority to the Wentworth by-election and the infighting that has seen the Newspoll crash.

Wentworth will be the first really tough test for Scott Morrison. This is a safe Liberal seat – one of the smallest and wealthiest in the country – and it has never fallen into Labor’s hands. A redistribution in 2016 cut off some of the more Labor-aligned suburbs like half of Potts point, Woolloomooloo, Kings Cross and Darlinghurst, making it even safer for the Liberals with an 18 per cent margin. If Morrison can’t hold Wentworth, what chance does he have of winning the entire federal election?

It’s a diverse seat, from the older wealthy sector of Point Piper, Darling Point and Double Bay, to the young, cashed-up families in Bondi and Clovelly and the leftie-brigade in Elizabeth Bay and part of Potts Point. Turnbull won it comfortably with 62 per cent of the primary vote and 67 per cent of the 2PP vote at the last election.

The Wentworth contests in recent years have been exciting and drama-filled. From Turnbull rolling Peter King for preselection in 2004 in a contest that involved branch stacking and ruthless behind-the-scenes machinations, to the 2007 contest with George Newhouse where my good friend Caroline Overington ended up slapping the Labor candidate on polling day.

Already, the signs are this by-election will follow-suit.

There was the resignation of a Liberal candidate Andrew Bragg – that he claimed was so he could step aside for a woman but actually was a forced resignation after an allegation or complaint was made against him, and the nature of that complaint reached someone very senior in Scott Morrison’s office and it was also investigated by the Liberal Party. While it has not been substantiated, it would have been too difficult for him to continue.

A deal was done for Bragg to get a winnable Senate spot instead – but even for this he will face tough competition. I’m told the head of the Menzies Research Centre Nick Cater is exploring renouncing his dual British citizenship with a view to potentially securing the same Senate spot.

After all of this drama, Scott Morrison threw his support behind Katherine O’Regan, with his backers even phoning around pre-selectors to warn them that if she wasn’t chosen, the federal executive might overturn their decision. It was a threat they were unlikely to ever follow through with. And, they didn’t. Dave Sharma – by far the strongest candidate out of those that put their hand up – was preselected last Thursday.

The former diplomat had the support of John Howard, who picked up the phone to make his views known to those in control of deciding the outcome. Like any good politician, Morrison, of course, has now embraced Sharma and declared he’s on “Team ScoMo.” Sharma is likely to be a future cabinet minister but, locally, his downfall is that he lives in Turramurra in Sydney’s upper north shore, some 23kms away from Wentworth. And, while he presents as the pro-Israel candidate on account of being the Australian ambassador there, he actually is Indian not Jewish.

But if it were just a contest with Sharma and Labor and some unknown independents, the Liberal Party probably wouldn’t be too concerned about Wentworth. It’s why Morrison wasn’t that worried about the by-election in the first place. And was happy to get Turnbull out of the way so he wouldn’t be sitting in parliament sniping. I guess no one imagined he’d be sitting in New York sniping, either.

But now Kerryn Phelps has thrown her hat in the ring and this is a real contest and the Liberal Party is worried. While she may only get around 25 per cent of the primary vote, if she manages to secure preferences from Labor, the Greens and other minor parties, it puts her in a competitive position.

She may not knock off the Liberals, but they certainly have a fight on their hands. She will argue Wentworth will be in a better position to have an independent MP given Bill Shorten is likely to win the next election. She is also running on a platform that seizes on the concerns of some Liberal voters in Wentworth.

Turnbull was very popular locally and there are some in the electorate who may have been disappointed in him as PM, but are very upset at how he was treated and his overthrow by conservatives. Wentworth, more than any other suburb, is socially progressive. It supports climate change and gay marriage.

The Morrison Government is forever talking about delaying any major energy announcement, that would promote coal and play down emissions targets, until after the Wentworth by-election for this very reason. And Phelps, of course, was a leading gay marriage advocate. So, she has a chance to seize on the disaffected Liberal vote and already in her press conference yesterday, she pressed home the message about the extreme right wing controlling the Liberal Party.

But there’s another factor at play here. The Clover Moore factor. Clover’s influence hasn’t been properly exposed yet. But the Sydney Lord Mayor is in an oddly powerful position and she could actually end up determining Scott Morrison’s fate and whether he keeps his one-seat majority. Moore may be appalling on many levels, but she’s an excellent politician – it’s why she’s still in the job after so many years despite how abysmal she has been for our beautiful city.

Moore has thrown her support – which includes volunteers and possibly funding – behind a rival independent candidate who she encouraged to run, called Licia Heath.

Her hope is to split some of the independent vote, to bleed votes from Phelps and strike a preference deal with the Greens. Moore will then preference the Liberals over Phelps, hoping to give them the extra few thousand votes they may need to get over the line.

Why would Clover Moore suddenly become Scott Morrison’s best friend? Because she despises Phelps more than she despises the Liberal Party after the pair had a falling out on the City of Sydney council. So, the supposedly independent lord mayor would rather the Liberals win than a fellow independent.

As I say, this is a drama-filled election contest and it’s only just beginning.

Turnbull is out of the country while this preselection is going on. While he backed Sharma, in all reality, he would probably rather the Liberal Party lost his seat than his chosen candidate win it. It would be vindication for him, that the party should have stuck by him. There’s little denying that he would like the entire government to fall apart.

Turnbull’s decision to quit parliament wasn’t viewed as a complete disaster by Morrison initially. For the simple reason that I mentioned earlier, that Turnbull was out of the way and wouldn’t be sniping and causing distractions in Parliament every day so Morrison could forge ahead with a new, aggressive reform agenda.

That hasn’t completely worked out, of course, and Turnbull is still engaged on a daily basis with what’s going on. He’s involved in a deliberate attempt to try and bring down Peter Dutton. He will not let up on this. Revenge is one of his strong suits, and he is intent on wreaking it.

Morrison has already been subject to the same sort of wrecking and undermining that Turnbull himself whined about when it came to Tony Abbott. Turnbull has repeatedly made it clear to Liberal MPs, and to those closest to Morrison, that the new Prime ­Minister should go straight to a federal election. His view is that Morrison’s prime ministership is illegitimate. He claims Morrison is only PM because of the eligibility questions swirling around Peter Dutton. Morrison has, sensibly, resisted going straight to the polls.

Dissatisfied with the outcome of a new-look government getting on with the job, Turnbull is now trying to force the issue and facilitate the downfall of the Liberal government. There have been leaks designed to damage Morrison from Turnbull’s closest confidants and open hostility on Twitter from the former prime minister himself.

Morrison is understood to firmly believe the leaks are from Turnbull’s closest supporters, such is the disclosure of intimate detail that would only be known to the former prime minister or his most senior advisers. But Turnbull is actively trying to tear the government down, first by quitting Parliament and forcing a by-election in Wentworth and now by seeking to side with Labor to refer Dutton to the High Court.

Both moves could deprive Morrison of his governing majority. Turnbull has the suicide vest on and he’s trying to blow up the entire show. An election now would mean a certain Bill Shorten win.

Morrison needs time, which he most likely won’t have enough of, to gain traction and prove himself to Australians and develop his own record. Already he is off to an impressive start. His political instincts are good. His background as Liberal Party state director, running campaigns, is now paying off. He speaks plainly and the public understand him. He is argumentative and stands his ground in media interviews. He is decisive. He knows what policy agenda he wants to pursue.

But Turnbull is intent on robbing him of his chance to beat Labor. The very worst of Turnbull’s behaviours, which had long been whispered about by his enemies, have now been exposed for all to see. Turnbull’s demand that MPs cross the floor to refer Dutton to the High Court over questions concerning his eligibility under Section 44 is shocking.

It is not Dutton and the so-called “terrorists” Turnbull is now hurting — it is the entire Liberal Party, the entire government and his loyal former Treasurer. Turnbull is at risk of turning into a Trumpian character, throwing bombs on Twitter, designed to wreck the government. His treachery cannot be overstated.

Remember, it was only three and a half weeks ago that Morrison threw his arm around Turnbull at a press conference and declared he supported his leader. It was an act of loyalty towards Turnbull, while others were dropping like flies, namely Mathias Cormann, Mitch Fifield and Michaelia Cash, and it damaged him in the leadership contest.

On the Sunday before the week of leadership spills, on August 19, Morrison is understood to have warned Turnbull not to call on a spill, telling him it would weaken his position and was not something that John Howard would ever have done. Spilling the leadership, to prove he had the numbers and support of the party room, was something Turnbull was contemplating in response to Dutton’s leadership manoeuvring, that I had first exposed in The Daily Telegraph just two days before.

Some claim that had Turnbull listened to Morrison, there is a chance he could still be prime minister now. I’m not sure that’s entirely correct but Turnbull’s behaviour now, towards someone who was loyal to him, is reprehensible. And all the while, he is trying to get Morrison to agree to give him an ongoing taxpayer-funded senior adviser position to assist him, on top of the perks that ex-prime ministers usually get.

Turnbull is, to an extent, furious at Morrison for the role he played in the leadership spill. The final spill motion of 45 to 40 would not have succeeded without some Morrison supporters — I understand it to be about three. To be clear, Morrison voted against spilling the leadership, but he gave the green light for some of his supporters to sign the petition and vote in favour of spilling the leadership. So, without Mathias Cormann’s crew and the three Morrison backers, the spill motion would have been 39, which is where it sat on the Tuesday when Turnbull first called on a vote.

But by that stage, by the Friday, Turnbull’s prime ministership was terminal, and it was better to deal with it swiftly, rather than allow the bloodbath to drag on and entirely destroy the Liberal Party’s chances of winning office at the next election.

In another private phone call that weekend before the leadership spill, Peter Dutton told Turnbull he did not want to challenge him and was looking for a way to save face with conservatives and broadcasters like Ray Hadley and Alan Jones who he said were urging him on.

Turnbull, naively, believed him that he was being forced into this situation. But Turnbull also understood there was a live threat to his prime ministership because Dutton did not shut down my front-page story that he was considering a challenge, for 36 hours — from when the front page first edition hit social media on Thursday night until Saturday morning, when Dutton eventually sent a lacklustre tweet expressing support for the-then prime minister.

So, while Morrison did ultimately play a role in getting the second leadership spill over the line against Turnbull, a challenge from Dutton was inevitable. If it wouldn’t have been the week of 20 August, it would have been last week, or this one.

It would always have come to this point and, the fact is, a large portion of the party were dissatisfied with Turnbull’s prime ministership. So dissatisfied, they were prepared to risk the enormous transactional costs of a leadership overthrow, it leaks and its carnage, and a Wentworth by-election, in order to see him go.