FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2025 – TWO VIEWS – MICHAEL KROGER

As the federal election campaign for 2025 came to an end, polls showed Labor comfortably ahead but predictions still uncertain about a minority governement outcome given the slim majority Labor won in 2022. To evalute the various party and independent candidates and the possible outcome, The Sydney Institute invited Mary Easson – former Labor MP for the seat of Lowe – and Michael Kroger – former president of the Liberal Party of Victoria – to address members on Thursday 24 April 2025. As endless polls pointed to a range of outcomes, seat by seat, the overall assessment seemed to be that it was a most unpredictable election.

FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2025 – TWO VIEWS

MICHAEL KROGER

It’s over 30 years I believe since I last spoke to the Sydney Institute. We did a zoom call a couple of years ago but to be here in person is the first time in some three decades. That either means my address then was so poor that Gerard and Anne and the Institute didn’t want to hear another one or it was so good that Gerard thought it was such a masterpiece which couldn’t be bettered and, rather than invite me back to build a catalogue of B grade addresses, he decided my address should live on in perpetuity as one of the best addresses ever given to the Institute.

At the outset may I say that my admiration for Gerard and Anne Henderson in particular and the institute in general knows no bounds. They have chronicled Australia’s political and social history better than anybody, including Gerard’s extraordinary work about George Pell’s trial titledThe Media Pile On & Collective Guilt. As usual with the Hendersons, their research is so meticulous that it rarely attracts factual criticism. Such was certainly the case with Gerard’s book on Pell.

When we look at the 2025 election, one must always cast an eye over history. Unless you are a Greens supporter living in a cave, without electricity, the internet and newspapers, you’ll know by now that the last one term government in Australia was that of James Scullin who was elected on 12 October 1929 and defeated on 9 December 1931. The reasons for his defeat are well canvassed and do not need repeating here. Incidentally, not so well known is that both Ben Chifley and John Curtin lost their seats at this election, only to be re-elected at subsequent elections before taking their place as Labor prime ministers in the 194’s

Scullin’s defeat was at the 13^th Australian Federal Election. Next month on 3 May Australia will vote at its 48^th General Election. The 34 elections between Scullin’s defeat and the election on Saturday week make interesting reading. Together, Lyons (three) and Menzies (one) led the UAP to four wins between 1931 and 1940. Curtin and Chifley then claimed the next two for the Labor Party. Menzies, Holt and Gordon won the next nine elections for the Coalition, Whitlam two for Labor, Fraser three for the Coalition, Hawke/Keating five for Labor, Howard four for the Coalition, Rudd/Gillard two for Labor, Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison three for the Coalition and, thus far, Albanese one for Labor.

So Labor’s record since that 1931 defeat is two, two term governments, one five term government and Albanese, currently, with one victory.

What does all this mean? It means, in simple terms, that Australians generally don’t like to admit when they get elections wrong. But, ultimately, as Graham Richardson says, in the end the mob will always work you out. History tells you then that Albanese should be favourite to win the election on Saturday week. Australians are a generous people who even gave Gough Whitlam two terms. That’s a generosity of spirit beyond all reason. However, despite the opinion polls showing Albanese as strong favourite, he faces a number of serious warning signs.

There have been so many cases in recent years where the non left vote has been underestimated by the polls. Think Trump 2016 and 2024, and Scott Morrison in 2019. Polls are unpredictable. They change. I myself prefer what they call the neighbourhood poll, which is that method of polling where you ask a voter “who do you think your neighbours will vote for?” The one thing I can say with some certainty is that on election night, we will be saying “Well, I didn’t see that coming.”

For a long time, the polls indicated that the public thought the Albanese Government was by no means a great one. Federal debt has never been higher. Labor has lost control of immigration, the cost of living has seen a real crisis develop in our suburbs and towns, interest rates are hurting working families, social cohesion is at its lowest level in my lifetime with the shocking rise of antisemitism its most poignant example. Our national defences look weak, our energy industry looks like a disaster and crime rates throughout the country are at unacceptable levels. In addition, domestic violence continues to be a scourge in our country. Many young people are afflicted by serious mental health issues, and housing is beyond the reach of record numbers of young people.

It is little wonder therefore that for a long time Albanese was behind in the polls.

You might expect me to say this, but I’m going to say it anyway – Labor’s recovery in the polls is built on the mirage that Medicare is under threat again, that urgent care clinics are going to be closed, that health and education funding are going to be slashed, that nuclear is unaffordable but renewables aren’t, and that somehow Labor will be better at standing up to America, China and Russia as required.

Labor’s campaign is built on signalling a darker Australia. They are essentially preying on the fears of the sick and the elderly that somehow their health cover is under attack from Peter Dutton. Labor has run out of visionary ideas when the old “Medicare is under attack” is wheeled out again as the centre piece of their campaign.

When you look at the numbers, you would have to believe that the Opposition are extremely competitive in three seats in Western Australia, which require swings of 2.8 per cent, 3.3 per cent and in the case of the teal, 1.3 per cent. This is because whilst the national swing against the Morrison Government in 2022 was 3.66 per cent, it was 10.55 per cent in WA, meaning that a significant correction is more likely in the West than anywhere else. Peter Dutton, being from Queensland, would have to mean the Coalition are very competitive in Brisbane and Ryan. The cost of living crisis has hit suburban Australia very hard which means that the Coalition are in tight races in seats like Gilmore, Bennelong, Robertson and in the Teal seats such as McKellar and Wentworth.

There are marginal seats in the Northern Terrtitory, being Lingiari, Lyons in Tasmania and Boothby in South Australia where the Coalition are either favoured to win or the result is close. When you turn to Victoria, it should be noted that in the 2022 election, whilst Labor’s primary vote dropped 4 per cent across the State, in its safe seats there were four seats where the swing was 8.7 per cent or more, two where the swing was more than 7 per cent and a further five seats where the swing was between 5 and 6.6 per cent. In other words, Labor’s heartland revolted against it in 2022, and with its campaign this time largely being based on an appeal to Labor’s core voters, one wonders whether the polls in Victoria reflect a strong increase in Labor’s votes in its own seats and not necessarily in the marginals.

A word about the Opposition. I must say I have found Peter Dutton to be an incredibly impressive Opposition Leader, ably supported by some very successful front benchers. He has been able to unite the Opposition like no other leader in recent history. He has had the courage to stand up for nuclear power, realistic goals in immigration, a substantial housing policy, a strong alignment with Israel and opposition to antisemitism, and a vision looking forward to tax reform when the budget ultimately permits. He also had the courage to stand up against the racist and divisive Voice campaign led by the Prime Minister, which is to his eternal credit. I’m in absolutely no doubt that Peter Dutton will be an extremely successful Prime Minister if elected on Saturday Week.

Obviously there is a lot more to say about the Teals, the Greens and the fascinating seat by seat races by time limits are time limits.

Whatever happens on Saturday week, it will be an election for the ages.