The 2016 Election: A Reflection

Caroline Overington is Associate editor of The Australian and an award winning author, most recently of The Last Woman Hanged. During the 2016 election campaign, The Australian Financial Review’s Aaron Patrick joined Caroline Overington to present their views on the way the campaign was unfolding. It was an entertaining event. To follow up, The Sydney Institute asked both journalists to return immediately after the election, on Tuesday 5 July 2016, to present their take on the results.

THE 2016 ELECTION – A REFLECTION

CAROLINE OVERINGTON

Well, here we are. Who expected this? Very few commentators expected this. Last time we were here, we were both complaining about Malcolm Turnbull, complaining about the campaign he was running.

I think the expectation was still a conservative victory.

There was in fact some talk of a hung parliament. The government – for ease of reference, I’ll refer to the Coalition as the government – made a big song and dance over the years about how it’s not legitimate to string a bunch of independents together and call it a government. George Brandis said a government cobbled together with Labor and the independents had about as much legitimacy as the Pakistani cricket team. Joe Hockey: This is an illegitimate government. It is the first time, certainly since World War II. That is inherently unstable …”

Christopher Pyne: “I think it’s fair to say that Julia Gillard has never been elected by the Australian public to be Prime Minister. Two country independents have given her the job, so it’s fair to say this government doesn’t have any legitimacy.”

Suddenly a hung parliament looks very legitimate.

Of course, we also needed to have a double dissolution to shake up the Senate. We’ve done that! The Senate looks like the bar scene from Star Wars. One big surprise: we have Derryn Hinch. No second acts. He’s on his 47^th. We’re talking about a man who edited newspapers no longer printed. Who anchored TV shows no longer in transmission. Who actually died, but did that slow him down?

No. He’s back. New liver, new life. Which reminds me. Two of the three incoming Senators have done time!

What a country we live in. Like Aaron, like most of you, we had planned to talk about the result. What result? We have no result. The smart money is on a hung parliament. A minority government, cobbled together by Conservatives, with Katter and Xenophon and Indi’s Cathy McGowan, as the three amigos.

Since we can’t talk about the result, I’ve decided to give a speech in three parts. Three acts.

Act one: the campaign.

Act two: that awful election night speech.

Act three: the aftermath.

I was going to call it the afterglow but there has been no afterglow, so I gave that up. To plunge in … the campaign.

The first thing that must be acknowledged is that Malcolm Turnbull is a poor campaigner. He was meant to be the great communicator, remember, but no. He could not cut through, certainly not in the way Tony Abbott was able to cut through.

The media was sick to death of Stop The Boats. But at least you remember it. And you know what it meant. I was intrigued by an article in The Sydney Morning Herald by Matthew Knott. He was on Turnbull’s campaign bus and he described the pace as languid.

One event a day. Lunch at a Chinese restaurant. Knock off at noon.

He found the whole thing tiresome. By contrast, Bill’s still going. Did you see him today? Yesterday? The polls are closed. He’s still campaigning. It reminded me of Tony Abbott in 2010, when he promised to stay up all night. Remember that? I’ll campaign for 48 hours non-stop. I won’t stop. He was on the ferry, reporters slumped against the bowlines. Whatever else you knew, you knew he wanted it. He wanted it badly.

It’s odd, but with Turnbull, you get the impression that, for a politician, he’s above politicking. Did anyone see the Kitchen Cabinet? With Annabel Crabb? He was tetchy. She made a joke about the Miso Brownies. Truly revolting. She called them the double mis-olution. Man that’s corny. But it’s not the worst joke in the world. He did not even try to smile.

She asked if he liked them. He said hmmm. You can taste the miso. I felt then: You need these votes. Not Annabel’s necessarily but every single person watching. You need all their votes.

They gave us the Dad ad. That was terrible. He persists with the log-cabin. It worked for Bill Clinton because it was true. His father was dead, or gone, before he was born. The house, in Hope, Arkansas, is still there. It’s a shack. There’s barely a window. He was entirely self-made. Utterly ruthless.

It worked, to some extent, for Kevin Rudd because he was indeed raised by a single mother. He did go to Nambour High. They lived in straitened circumstances.

Malcolm Turnbull’s idea of poverty? There are people living ten to a house, surviving on welfare, with a son in prison, a pregnant daughter who has just dropped out of high school; chronic pain conditions and associated medication; welfare and welfare fraud and the stress that goes with that. They look at this, and they immediately think: this guy is a fraud.

It’s not just me saying that. On election eve, Sky’s outstanding political analyst David Speers did a little roundtable with some undecided voters. They watched a short clip of Turnbull speaking at the National Press Club. They all said the same thing: he’s out of touch. He’s arrogant. He’s insincere. So there was there.

The Coalition also gave us the fake tradie. What was that about? And has anyone heard from him?

I waited the whole campaign to see a solid, conservative attack on Labor. On borders. On deeper deficits. On higher debt. It didn’t come and, as campaigns go, that’s a catastrophe. You cannot win playing only defence. You win from the front foot. You get out there, and attack.

Tony Abbott would have been warning the public every day about the prospect under Labor of asylum boat trauma, national security weakness, budget disasters and new taxes. Tony Abbott knows how to campaign. He won five seats the first time, in 2010. Second time around, he won eighteen. That’s all gone. That huge buffer, dissolved.

Now, the Coalition has complained about the viciously dishonest scare campaign: MediScare. What a scandal that is. A fraud. Wayne Swan’s daughter was behind it. As revealed by my colleague, Pamela Williams (formerly your colleague, Aaron?) has broken the news on that one.

But still. The Coalition can’t sit back and let that run like a rabbit through a field. They have to stomp on that nonsense. Stomp hard.

Now, to the speech. The angry speech. I’ve have a bit to say about how bad it was. How he looked like he was hiding. Like he was annoyed with the result. I think he’s made amends today. He’s taken full responsibility for the campaign, and for the result.

But it was terrible of him. He did not offer commiserations to those leaving the parliament; many, like Peter Hendy, and Wyatt Roy, were his supporters. They delivered him the prime ministership. He did not thank the voters, or his supporters.

I received a letter today that summed it up: “Caroline, I was one of those bone weary volunteers in Melbourne, wearing the daggy blue T shirt and yes, in a windswept school ground. Only it wasn’t 9 hours – it was 12, including the time taken to set up the booth before the 8 am votes. All day, no break, no pay, no respite and quite a bit of abuse because of our limited resources in the western side of town. His speech was appalling and ungracious. This election was a disaster.”

Which brings us to the afterglow! Or the aftermath: The Australian people have spoken. It’s going to take some time to figure out what they said.

There are a couple of heart-warming results. I make the entirely biased observation: this is great for newspapers. Also, we’ve seen off Rob Oakeshott. Probably. I say that because I’m not sure his heart was in it. He’s studying to be a doctor in Wollongong. That’s probably a wise thing for him to be doing.

Also, Tony Windsor is gone. He came across as terrifically angry. Bitter. The remark he made about Vietnam war doing things to people. That was low order. Banned News Corp from the campaign function. Honestly, we couldn’t have been more relieved.

The Prime Minister is still saying he thinks he can form a government. But he’ll need to do deals with conservatives, probably. If so, well, what’s the price? That’s what we need to know. What’s the price for their support?

Queensland independent Bob Katter has outlined an early list of claims for those seeking his support. He says he has a 20-point list. He has already told the Oz: “The people in the centre will have immense power. I most certainly intend to use that power.”

In the Senate, we will have Hinch, and Hanson. Ms Hanson said she wants to outlaw “the full burqa” and stop the building of places for Muslims to worship. She wants a royal commission into Islam. This is not going to happen.

Going forward, Malcolm Turnbull needs to reconnect with the base for sure. He can do that by undoing planned changes to superannuation. They were a disaster. But Shorten has managed – just today – to get him back on the defensive, saying he would never, ever do any harm to Medicare.

He needs to find the front foot. And get on it. This is not the ending Turnbull wanted. He has taken some strong steps in the right direction today. He’s never run the campaign for the Lodge before. Maybe he thought it would be easier than this.

It’s good to see some signs that he’s perhaps learned a little something. But, on the other hand, I’m not sure you can teach anything to anyone who thinks they have nothing to learn.

But I don’t want to end on that note. I want to end on a fun note. A Bill Leak cartoon. It’s midnight on election night, and Lucy is shaking Malcolm, saying Wake up, it’s time to make a speech. How long have I been asleep? Eight weeks, Malcolm. Eight weeks.