COMMENT BY GERARD HENDERSON FOR THE WEEKEND AUSTRALIAN, SATURDAY 23 MAY 2026

As with most clever original sayings, “a week is a long time in politics” has become a cliché. It was first used by British Conservative Party politician Rab Butler during the 1964 British general election.

A cliché these days, but a true one still. Yet, in terms of Australian national politics since 1901, a year is sometimes a short time. For example, there has been substantial political change between May 2025 and May 2026.

The May 2025 election saw the Labor Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, win one of the greatest victories in Australia – obtaining 94 seats in a 150-seat House of Representatives. Meanwhile, the Coalition led by Peter Dutton, managed to win a mere 43 seats.

The Opposition ran a dreadful campaign – but Labor’s cause was assisted by the Reserve Bank’s decision to commence reducing interest rates and by US President Trump’s announcement of his “liberation day” decision to dramatically increase tariffs.

During the second half of the year, Labor was dominant and some commentators took the familiar tack of predicting the demise of the Liberal Party. This may, or may not, occur. However, the party has been bleeding votes to the right-of-centre One Nation Party along with the left-of-centre Labor Party. Plus the Teals who identify as “progressive” but are closer to Labor than the Coalition on many policies.

However, Australian politics changed dramatically over the Christmas holiday period. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was joined by one-time Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce on December 8. This was shortly before the Bondi massacre on December 14, which saw an attack on the Jewish community by alleged followers of radical Islam. Hanson and Joyce were among the first political leaders to make a high profile visit to the scene of the killings.

One Nation increased its vote in the opinion polls throughout the second half of 2025 and was polling in the mid to high teens by late in the year. Yet, prior to the Bondi massacre, no poll had One Nation ahead of the Coalition. For example, a Newspoll conducted between November 17 and 20 had One Nation on 15 per cent to the Coalition’s 24 per cent.

The first Newspoll conducted post Bondi had One Nation on 22 per cent and the Coalition at 21 per cent. That was in mid-January 2026. Another Newspoll conducted between February 5 and 8 showed One Nation at 27 per cent to the Coalition’s 18 per cent.

The Coalition split soon after the 2025 election when Sussan Ley led the Liberals and David Littleproud the Nationals. It was patched up, but another split occurred on January 22 with a reconciliation taking place on February 8. Soon after, Angus Taylor defeated Ley in a Liberal Party room ballot on February 13.

Ley was a competent minister in Coalition governments. But she was never strong on policy. Her decision to wipe the Liberal Party’s election policies after succeeding Dutton left her Liberal Party colleagues without a platform.

Michael Kroger, a one-time Victorian Liberal Party president, has maintained consistently that political conservatives have to be performing on their “home ground” to succeed. Namely, the economy and national security.

The 2026 budget, presented by Jim Chalmers on May 12, had the unintended consequence of being an economic own-goal. Designed to appeal to young Australians who are increasingly squeezed out of homeownership, it was regarded by many as an attack on aspirational millennials and zoomers born between 1981 and 2012. The ones who are seeking wealth in small businesses, business startups, cryptocurrency, shares and ETFs (exchange traded funds) and are wary of capital gains tax and restrictions on negatively geared properties.

This was Taylor’s opportunity. He has a degree in economics and experience in business. Whatever anyone thinks about his Budget reply on May 14, the Opposition leader set the agenda.

The essential message of Taylor’s speech was a commitment to end bracket creep. Meaning the tax increases which occur when wages increase – merely due to inflation. This moves individuals into higher tax brackets despite the fact their real wages have not risen.

I remember the positive response in 1975, soon after Malcolm Fraser became Liberal Party leader in March of that year. He promised tax indexation – that is, ensuring that the level of taxation does not increase in real terms. The Coalition won the December 1975 election in a landslide and tax indexation was introduced in the August 1976 budget.

It is a matter of fact that the Coalition could not cut expenditure sufficiently to make indexation possible. It was reduced in 1978 and abandoned in 1981 at a time of recession. Tax indexation is a difficult reform to implement. But it is worth trying.

Moreover, Taylor, with the support of the Nationals’ leader Matt Canavan and shadow treasurer Tim Wilson, has managed to discuss tax at a time when the Albanese government is under pressure to explain its tax agenda in terms that can be readily understood.

It’s a long way to the next election. But at least the Opposition is relevant again – which is good for democracy. The most recent Newspoll, taken between May 13 and 17, has Labor at 31 per cent, One Nation at 27 per cent, the Coalition on 20 per cent and the Greens at 12 per cent and others at 10 per cent. This puts the left-of-centre vote broadly defined at 43 per cent and the right-of-centre vote at 47 per cent with others at 10 per cent.

At a time of economic difficulties on inflation, interest rates and cost of living, One Nation poses problems for the Albanese government as well as the Opposition.

The one surprise of the various surveys is that Taylor leads Albanese as preferred prime minister in the Resolve poll by 33 to 30 per cent. This does not seem likely, but we shall see. Meanwhile, the most recent YouGov Sky News poll indicates that Taylor does better against Albanese than does Hanson.

The ongoing impact of the Bondi massacre and the likely economic outcome suggests that the lead up to the next election is likely to be a long time in politics.

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Gerard Henderson is Executive Director of The Sydney Institute.

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